TAC
TransAlta CorporationOpen13.21+0.21 +1.62%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 14:52 ET · 20m delay
Open
12.90
Prev close
13.00
Day range
12.9013.22
52-week range
11.3817.88
Volume
454.53K0.26×
Mkt cap
4.18B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
31.85
EPS ttm
-0.2200
Div yield
1.51%
Earnings
Nov 3, 2026
From 52w high
−26.12%
TAC market-implied price distribution
TAC Price at Expiry
12 OTM quotes · ATM IV 82.3%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
44%
spot 13.21
Expected price
12.88
forward 13.03
68% range
10–15
−26.0% / +15.4%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 6.43 | −51.4% |
| 16% | 9.78 | −26.0% |
| 25% | 11.21 | −15.1% |
| 50% (median) | 12.87 | −2.5% |
| 75% | 14.35 | +8.6% |
| 84% | 15.25 | +15.4% |
| 95% | 20.51 | +55.3% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (13.87) | 32% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (14.53) | 23% |
| Down 5% or more (12.55) | 44% |
| Down 10% or more (11.89) | 33% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 33%, 0.8× the 42% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.