SWBI
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc.Open14.19−0.04 −0.28%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 13:44 ET · 15m delay
Open
14.23
Prev close
14.23
Day range
14.0814.30
52-week range
8.1417.56
Volume
209.41K0.40×
Mkt cap
636.28M
P/E ttm
26.28
Fwd P/E
23.65
EPS ttm
0.5400
Div yield
3.66%
Earnings
Sep 3, 2026
From 52w high
−19.19%
SWBI market-implied price distribution
SWBI Price at Expiry
6 OTM quotes · ATM IV 33.1%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
52%
spot 14.19
Expected price
14.16
forward 14.25
68% range
12–16
−12.0% / +10.0%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 10.97 | −22.7% |
| 16% | 12.49 | −12.0% |
| 25% | 13.26 | −6.6% |
| 50% (median) | 14.26 | +0.5% |
| 75% | 15.12 | +6.6% |
| 84% | 15.60 | +10.0% |
| 95% | 17.29 | +21.8% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (14.90) | 31% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (15.61) | 16% |
| Down 5% or more (13.48) | 29% |
| Down 10% or more (12.77) | 18% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 18%, 1.1× the 17% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.