SW
Smurfit WestRock plcPre-market41.07−0.22 −0.53%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delay
Open
40.98
Prev close
41.29
Day range
40.9241.54
52-week range
32.7352.65
Volume
2.45M0.54×
Mkt cap
21.54B
P/E ttm
42.78
Fwd P/E
11.84
EPS ttm
0.9600
Div yield
4.41%
Earnings
Jul 29, 2026
From 52w high
−21.99%
SW market-implied price distribution
SW Price at Expiry
7 OTM quotes · ATM IV 42.8%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
50%
spot 41.07
Expected price
41.10
forward 41.25
68% range
35–46
−14.0% / +12.9%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 28.57 | −30.4% |
| 16% | 35.33 | −14.0% |
| 25% | 37.46 | −8.8% |
| 50% (median) | 41.03 | −0.1% |
| 75% | 44.47 | +8.3% |
| 84% | 46.35 | +12.9% |
| 95% | 52.22 | +27.1% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (43.12) | 34% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (45.18) | 21% |
| Down 5% or more (39.02) | 35% |
| Down 10% or more (36.96) | 22% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 22%, 1.0× the 24% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.