STZ
Constellation Brands, Inc.Pre-market126.40+3.76 +3.07%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:01 ET · 20m delay
Open
123.16
Prev close
122.64
Day range
123.16126.42
52-week range
110.60168.60
Volume
2.39M1.09×
Mkt cap
21.39B
P/E ttm
11.66
Fwd P/E
10.39
EPS ttm
10.84
Div yield
3.26%
Earnings
Oct 6, 2026
From 52w high
−25.03%
STZ market-implied price distribution
STZ Price at Expiry
26 OTM quotes · ATM IV 33.3%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
34%
spot 126.40
Expected price
122.20
forward 122.43
68% range
111–134
−11.8% / +5.6%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 97.80 | −22.6% |
| 16% | 111.43 | −11.8% |
| 25% | 115.20 | −8.9% |
| 50% (median) | 122.07 | −3.4% |
| 75% | 129.27 | +2.3% |
| 84% | 133.52 | +5.6% |
| 95% | 145.27 | +14.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (132.72) | 17% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (139.04) | 9.7% |
| Down 5% or more (120.08) | 42% |
| Down 10% or more (113.76) | 21% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 21%, 0.9× the 24% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.