STWD
STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. SOpen12.52−0.01 −0.04%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 15:49 ET · 20m delay
Open
12.68
Prev close
12.52
Day range
12.3412.82
52-week range
12.3419.06
Volume
4.89M1.03×
Mkt cap
4.75B
P/E ttm
20.86
Fwd P/E
6.66
EPS ttm
0.6000
Div yield
15.34%
Earnings
Nov 6, 2026
From 52w high
−34.34%
STWD market-implied price distribution
STWD Price at Expiry
7 OTM quotes · ATM IV 28.4%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
52%
spot 12.51
Expected price
12.39
forward 12.52
68% range
11–13
−9.6% / +7.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 8.53 | −31.8% |
| 16% | 11.32 | −9.6% |
| 25% | 11.83 | −5.4% |
| 50% (median) | 12.55 | +0.3% |
| 75% | 13.17 | +5.2% |
| 84% | 13.49 | +7.8% |
| 95% | 14.50 | +15.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (13.14) | 26% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (13.76) | 11% |
| Down 5% or more (11.89) | 26% |
| Down 10% or more (11.26) | 15% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 15%, 1.2× the 13% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.