STUB
StubHub Holdings, Inc.Open5.98+0.02 +0.34%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 12:41 ET · 20m delay
Open
5.95
Prev close
5.96
Day range
5.956.09
52-week range
5.2221.49
Volume
1.12M0.17×
Mkt cap
2.28B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
9.82
EPS ttm
-5.77
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 12, 2026
From 52w high
−72.17%
STUB market-implied price distribution
STUB Price at Expiry
6 OTM quotes · ATM IV 74.9%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
49%
spot 5.98
Expected price
5.98
forward 6.04
68% range
5–7
−23.5% / +21.1%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 3.76 | −37.1% |
| 16% | 4.57 | −23.5% |
| 25% | 5.08 | −15.0% |
| 50% (median) | 5.95 | −0.5% |
| 75% | 6.80 | +13.6% |
| 84% | 7.24 | +21.1% |
| 95% | 8.41 | +40.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (6.28) | 40% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (6.58) | 31% |
| Down 5% or more (5.68) | 41% |
| Down 10% or more (5.38) | 32% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 32%, 1.0× the 34% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.