STRL
Sterling Infrastructure, Inc.Open501.06−0.13 −0.03%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 10:18 ET · 15m delay
Open
488.81
Prev close
501.19
Day range
480.23506.20
52-week range
281.581,005.68
Volume
67.84K0.10×
Mkt cap
15.33B
P/E ttm
36.10
Fwd P/E
19.47
EPS ttm
13.88
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 3, 2026
From 52w high
−50.18%
STRL market-implied price distribution
STRL Price at Expiry
47 OTM quotes · ATM IV 75.5%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
46%
spot 501.75
Expected price
501.49
forward 502.31
68% range
381–617
−24.1% / +22.9%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 297.35 | −40.7% |
| 16% | 380.77 | −24.1% |
| 25% | 416.50 | −17.0% |
| 50% (median) | 491.04 | −2.1% |
| 75% | 572.48 | +14.1% |
| 84% | 616.71 | +22.9% |
| 95% | 730.44 | +45.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (526.84) | 38% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (551.93) | 30% |
| Down 5% or more (476.66) | 45% |
| Down 10% or more (451.58) | 36% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 36%, 1.0× the 38% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.