STOK
Stoke Therapeutics, Inc.Open22.61−1.54 −6.38%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 13:40 ET · 15m delay
Open
24.06
Prev close
24.15
Day range
22.6124.06
52-week range
20.3240.22
Volume
199.09K0.23×
Mkt cap
1.46B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-6.41
EPS ttm
-3.38
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 3, 2026
From 52w high
−43.78%
STOK market-implied price distribution
STOK Price at Expiry
8 OTM quotes · ATM IV 88.2%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
57%
spot 22.61
Expected price
24.47
forward 24.62
68% range
16–31
−29.9% / +37.4%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 11.24 | −50.3% |
| 16% | 15.84 | −29.9% |
| 25% | 19.15 | −15.3% |
| 50% (median) | 23.79 | +5.2% |
| 75% | 28.31 | +25.2% |
| 84% | 31.06 | +37.4% |
| 95% | 42.26 | +86.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (23.74) | 50% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (24.87) | 43% |
| Down 5% or more (21.48) | 36% |
| Down 10% or more (20.35) | 30% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 30%, 1.0× the 30% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.