STLD
Steel Dynamics, Inc.Pre-market239.14+0.76 +0.32%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 15m delay
Open
238.90
Prev close
238.38
Day range
237.95241.63
52-week range
140.87288.74
Volume
705.16K0.65×
Mkt cap
34.28B
P/E ttm
21.76
Fwd P/E
11.55
EPS ttm
10.99
Div yield
0.89%
Earnings
Oct 19, 2026
From 52w high
−17.18%
STLD market-implied price distribution
STLD Price at Expiry
38 OTM quotes · ATM IV 41.9%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
49%
spot 239.14
Expected price
243.55
forward 239.83
68% range
214–267
−10.5% / +11.5%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 194.13 | −18.8% |
| 16% | 214.01 | −10.5% |
| 25% | 222.21 | −7.1% |
| 50% (median) | 238.48 | −0.3% |
| 75% | 256.23 | +7.1% |
| 84% | 266.58 | +11.5% |
| 95% | 300.44 | +25.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (251.10) | 31% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (263.05) | 19% |
| Down 5% or more (227.18) | 32% |
| Down 10% or more (215.23) | 17% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 17%, 0.7× the 23% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.