ST
Sensata Technologies Holding plPre-market42.10−0.19 −0.45%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delayPre-market 41.80 −0.71%
Open
42.20
Prev close
42.29
Day range
41.9142.42
52-week range
28.1653.89
Volume
1.07M0.74×
Mkt cap
6.13B
P/E ttm
70.17
Fwd P/E
10.31
EPS ttm
0.6000
Div yield
1.14%
Earnings
Jul 29, 2026
From 52w high
−21.88%
ST market-implied price distribution
ST Price at Expiry
18 OTM quotes · ATM IV 43.6%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
54%
spot 42.10
Expected price
43.15
forward 42.61
68% range
37–48
−11.1% / +13.2%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 27.33 | −35.1% |
| 16% | 37.43 | −11.1% |
| 25% | 39.36 | −6.5% |
| 50% (median) | 42.53 | +1.0% |
| 75% | 45.71 | +8.6% |
| 84% | 47.64 | +13.2% |
| 95% | 56.65 | +34.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (44.21) | 36% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (46.31) | 22% |
| Down 5% or more (40.00) | 29% |
| Down 10% or more (37.89) | 18% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 18%, 0.8× the 22% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.