SPIR
Spire Global, Inc.Open9.28−0.26 −2.73%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 14, 13:48 ET · 20m delay
Open
9.38
Prev close
9.54
Day range
9.139.46
52-week range
6.6025.93
Volume
360.16K0.54×
Mkt cap
362.99M
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-23.79
EPS ttm
-2.75
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 12, 2026
From 52w high
−64.21%
SPIR market-implied price distribution
SPIR Price at Expiry
12 OTM quotes · ATM IV 81.4%
Days to expiry
37
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
47%
spot 9.28
Expected price
9.22
forward 9.31
68% range
7–11
−29.3% / +22.4%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 4.05 | −56.3% |
| 16% | 6.56 | −29.3% |
| 25% | 7.61 | −18.0% |
| 50% (median) | 9.11 | −1.9% |
| 75% | 10.53 | +13.4% |
| 84% | 11.36 | +22.4% |
| 95% | 15.06 | +62.2% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (9.74) | 38% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (10.21) | 30% |
| Down 5% or more (8.82) | 44% |
| Down 10% or more (8.35) | 36% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 36%, 0.9× the 39% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.