SPDW
State Street SPDR Portfolio DevClosed49.23−0.55 −1.10%USD
NYSEArca · as of Oct 14, 16:00 ETAfter hours 49.27 +0.08%
Open
49.35
Prev close
49.78
Day range
49.1049.50
52-week range
41.9952.43
Volume
2.80M1.07×
P/E ttm
15.60
EPS ttm
3.16
Div yield
3.01%
From 52w high
−6.10%
SPDW market-implied price distribution
SPDW Price at Expiry
8 OTM quotes · ATM IV 15.3%
Days to expiry
37
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
65%
spot 49.23
Expected price
48.34
forward 49.52
68% range
46–52
−7.1% / +4.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 36.22 | −26.4% |
| 16% | 45.73 | −7.1% |
| 25% | 48.20 | −2.1% |
| 50% (median) | 50.09 | +1.7% |
| 75% | 51.15 | +3.9% |
| 84% | 51.58 | +4.8% |
| 95% | 52.51 | +6.7% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (51.69) | 14% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (54.15) | 1.4% |
| Down 5% or more (46.77) | 18% |
| Down 10% or more (44.31) | 14% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 14%, 12.3× the 1.2% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.