SOC
Sable Offshore Corp.After hours3.36−0.26 −7.18%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 14, 16:00 ET · 20m delayAfter hours 3.42 +1.79%
Open
3.65
Prev close
3.62
Day range
3.353.68
52-week range
2.8819.25
Volume
5.62M0.68×
Mkt cap
644.68M
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
3.98
EPS ttm
-3.26
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
—
From 52w high
−82.55%
SOC market-implied price distribution
SOC Price at Expiry
8 OTM quotes · ATM IV 97.0%
Days to expiry
30
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
48%
spot 3.36
Expected price
3.36
forward 3.39
68% range
2–4
−30.6% / +25.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 1.62 | −51.7% |
| 16% | 2.33 | −30.6% |
| 25% | 2.71 | −19.4% |
| 50% (median) | 3.31 | −1.5% |
| 75% | 3.90 | +16.0% |
| 84% | 4.23 | +25.8% |
| 95% | 5.35 | +59.2% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (3.53) | 40% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (3.70) | 32% |
| Down 5% or more (3.19) | 44% |
| Down 10% or more (3.02) | 37% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 37%, 0.9× the 39% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.