SMTO3.SA
SAO MARTINHOON NMClosedSMTO3.SA discounted cash flow valuation
SMTO3.SA Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies 15.8% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 11.0% in this model.
Model: 11.0% from analyst next-year revenue growth. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 7.19% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | BRL 3.12B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (71% of EV) | BRL 7.57B |
| Enterprise value | BRL 10.69B |
| + Cash & investments | BRL 4.85B |
| − Total debt | −BRL 12.19B |
| Equity value | BRL 3.35B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 322.77M |
| Value per share | BRL 10.39 |
| Market cap | BRL 6.77B |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.19% |
|---|---|
| Beta (adjusted toward 1) | 0.67 |
| Equity risk premium | 4.50% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 8.18% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 6.48% |
| Tax rate | 34.0% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 64.3% |
| WACC | 7.19% |
Beta is Yahoo's, held between 0.5 and 2.5, then moved a third of the way toward 1. Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%. WACC is at least the risk-free rate plus 2%, which applies here.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.19% | 23.73 | 31.24 | 42.18 | 59.59 | 91.63 |
| 6.19% | 12.18 | 16.11 | 21.29 | 28.38 | 38.71 |
| 7.19% | 5.09 | 7.46 | 10.39 | 14.11 | 19.00 |
| 8.19% | 0.3146 | 1.86 | 3.70 | 5.94 | 8.71 |
| 9.19% | -3.12 | -2.05 | -0.8054 | 0.6577 | 2.40 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (TTM) | — | BRL 271.05M | — | — |
| Year 1 | 11.0% | BRL 300.86M | 0.933 | BRL 280.68M |
| Year 2 | 11.0% | BRL 333.95M | 0.870 | BRL 290.66M |
| Year 3 | 11.0% | BRL 370.69M | 0.812 | BRL 300.99M |
| Year 4 | 11.0% | BRL 411.47M | 0.758 | BRL 311.69M |
| Year 5 | 11.0% | BRL 456.73M | 0.707 | BRL 322.76M |
| Year 6 | 9.4% | BRL 499.66M | 0.659 | BRL 329.42M |
| Year 7 | 7.8% | BRL 538.63M | 0.615 | BRL 331.29M |
| Year 8 | 6.2% | BRL 572.03M | 0.574 | BRL 328.23M |
| Year 9 | 4.6% | BRL 598.34M | 0.535 | BRL 320.30M |
| Year 10 | 3.0% | BRL 616.29M | 0.499 | BRL 307.78M |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else next year's revenue growth (steadier than one year's EPS), else next year's EPS growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −2% and 25%. Terminal growth defaults to 3%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.