SMG
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (TheAfter hours50.10+0.16 +0.32%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 20m delayAfter hours 50.10 −0.02%
Open
50.49
Prev close
49.94
Day range
49.2050.67
52-week range
47.9075.34
Volume
864.59K0.83×
Mkt cap
2.92B
P/E ttm
17.89
Fwd P/E
10.65
EPS ttm
2.80
Div yield
5.29%
Earnings
Nov 4, 2026
From 52w high
−33.50%
SMG market-implied price distribution
SMG Price at Expiry
14 OTM quotes · ATM IV 45.0%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
49%
spot 50.10
Expected price
50.18
forward 50.33
68% range
43–57
−14.2% / +13.9%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 34.34 | −31.5% |
| 16% | 42.97 | −14.2% |
| 25% | 45.48 | −9.2% |
| 50% (median) | 49.99 | −0.2% |
| 75% | 54.53 | +8.9% |
| 84% | 57.05 | +13.9% |
| 95% | 64.82 | +29.4% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (52.61) | 35% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (55.11) | 23% |
| Down 5% or more (47.60) | 36% |
| Down 10% or more (45.09) | 23% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 23%, 0.9× the 25% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.