SM
SM Energy CompanyOpen38.62+0.93 +2.47%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 14:51 ET · 20m delay
Open
37.90
Prev close
37.69
Day range
37.7338.64
52-week range
17.4541.56
Volume
1.06M0.29×
Mkt cap
9.19B
P/E ttm
6.85
Fwd P/E
4.67
EPS ttm
5.64
Div yield
2.33%
Earnings
Nov 3, 2026
From 52w high
−7.07%
SM market-implied price distribution
SM Price at Expiry
15 OTM quotes · ATM IV 52.4%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
50%
spot 38.62
Expected price
38.77
forward 38.66
68% range
33–45
−15.2% / +15.7%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 27.56 | −28.6% |
| 16% | 32.75 | −15.2% |
| 25% | 34.73 | −10.1% |
| 50% (median) | 38.55 | −0.2% |
| 75% | 42.50 | +10.0% |
| 84% | 44.67 | +15.7% |
| 95% | 51.06 | +32.2% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (40.55) | 36% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (42.48) | 25% |
| Down 5% or more (36.69) | 37% |
| Down 10% or more (34.76) | 25% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 25%, 0.9× the 29% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.