SGI
Somnigroup International Inc.Open63.19+0.78 +1.26%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 15:50 ET · 20m delay
Open
62.83
Prev close
62.40
Day range
62.5063.60
52-week range
60.0898.56
Volume
993.36K0.32×
Mkt cap
14.55B
P/E ttm
25.17
Fwd P/E
16.20
EPS ttm
2.51
Div yield
1.09%
Earnings
Aug 6, 2026
From 52w high
−35.89%
SGI market-implied price distribution
SGI Price at Expiry
17 OTM quotes · ATM IV 54.9%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
45%
spot 63.19
Expected price
63.51
forward 63.25
68% range
52–72
−17.2% / +14.2%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 32.43 | −48.7% |
| 16% | 52.33 | −17.2% |
| 25% | 56.12 | −11.2% |
| 50% (median) | 62.07 | −1.8% |
| 75% | 68.23 | +8.0% |
| 84% | 72.16 | +14.2% |
| 95% | 97.13 | +53.7% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (66.34) | 31% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (69.50) | 22% |
| Down 5% or more (60.03) | 40% |
| Down 10% or more (56.87) | 27% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 27%, 0.9× the 30% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.