SFM
Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.Pre-market64.33−0.81 −1.24%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 15m delay
Open
65.19
Prev close
65.14
Day range
63.9165.48
52-week range
61.88114.34
Volume
2.07M1.04×
Mkt cap
6.00B
P/E ttm
12.14
Fwd P/E
10.81
EPS ttm
5.30
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Oct 28, 2026
From 52w high
−43.74%
SFM market-implied price distribution
SFM Price at Expiry
14 OTM quotes · ATM IV 51.3%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
48%
spot 64.33
Expected price
64.41
forward 64.58
68% range
54–74
−16.1% / +15.5%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 43.96 | −31.7% |
| 16% | 53.96 | −16.1% |
| 25% | 57.39 | −10.8% |
| 50% (median) | 63.95 | −0.6% |
| 75% | 70.69 | +9.9% |
| 84% | 74.32 | +15.5% |
| 95% | 84.03 | +30.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (67.55) | 36% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (70.76) | 25% |
| Down 5% or more (61.11) | 38% |
| Down 10% or more (57.90) | 27% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 27%, 0.9× the 28% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.