SF
Stifel Financial CorporationOpen69.14−0.90 −1.29%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 10:18 ET · 20m delay
Open
70.58
Prev close
70.04
Day range
68.7470.50
52-week range
67.8189.83
Volume
45.41K0.04×
Mkt cap
10.44B
P/E ttm
12.35
Fwd P/E
9.59
EPS ttm
5.60
Div yield
1.94%
Earnings
—
From 52w high
−23.04%
SF market-implied price distribution
SF Price at Expiry
9 OTM quotes · ATM IV 32.3%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
57%
spot 69.14
Expected price
69.71
forward 70.16
68% range
59–77
−14.9% / +11.1%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 47.45 | −31.4% |
| 16% | 58.80 | −14.9% |
| 25% | 64.99 | −6.0% |
| 50% (median) | 70.35 | +1.8% |
| 75% | 74.46 | +7.7% |
| 84% | 76.82 | +11.1% |
| 95% | 92.52 | +33.8% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (72.59) | 35% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (76.05) | 18% |
| Down 5% or more (65.68) | 27% |
| Down 10% or more (62.22) | 19% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 19%, 1.4× the 14% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.