SBSW
D/B/A Sibanye-Stillwater LimiteAfter hours9.91+0.02 +0.20%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 20m delayAfter hours 10.00 +0.91%
Open
10.13
Prev close
9.89
Day range
9.8610.17
52-week range
7.8721.29
Volume
3.91M0.76×
Mkt cap
7.17B
P/E ttm
8.33
Fwd P/E
2.89
EPS ttm
1.19
Div yield
8.18%
Earnings
Sep 1, 2026
From 52w high
−53.45%
SBSW market-implied price distribution
SBSW Price at Expiry
10 OTM quotes · ATM IV 54.6%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
53%
spot 9.91
Expected price
10.02
forward 10.06
68% range
8–11
−18.0% / +15.5%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 6.10 | −38.4% |
| 16% | 8.13 | −18.0% |
| 25% | 8.94 | −9.7% |
| 50% (median) | 10.01 | +1.0% |
| 75% | 10.93 | +10.3% |
| 84% | 11.45 | +15.5% |
| 95% | 13.37 | +34.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (10.41) | 38% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (10.90) | 26% |
| Down 5% or more (9.41) | 34% |
| Down 10% or more (8.92) | 25% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 25%, 0.9× the 28% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.