SAP
SAP SEOpen219.85+2.00 +0.92%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 12:41 ET · 20m delay
Open
218.00
Prev close
217.85
Day range
218.07222.21
52-week range
144.97281.37
Volume
1.03M0.40×
Mkt cap
253.75B
P/E ttm
28.22
Fwd P/E
22.90
EPS ttm
7.79
Div yield
1.34%
Earnings
Oct 21, 2026
From 52w high
−21.86%
SAP market-implied price distribution
SAP Price at Expiry
11 OTM quotes · ATM IV 43.2%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
50%
spot 219.85
Expected price
220.22
forward 220.61
68% range
192–247
−12.8% / +12.3%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 173.40 | −21.1% |
| 16% | 191.77 | −12.8% |
| 25% | 201.64 | −8.3% |
| 50% (median) | 219.64 | −0.1% |
| 75% | 237.43 | +8.0% |
| 84% | 246.81 | +12.3% |
| 95% | 271.31 | +23.4% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (230.84) | 33% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (241.84) | 20% |
| Down 5% or more (208.86) | 34% |
| Down 10% or more (197.87) | 21% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 21%, 1.0× the 21% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.