SAM
Boston Beer Company, Inc. (The)Pre-market175.09+4.58 +2.69%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delay
Open
170.74
Prev close
170.51
Day range
170.33176.39
52-week range
158.68264.46
Volume
182.81K0.74×
Mkt cap
1.80B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
17.28
EPS ttm
-6.67
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Oct 22, 2026
From 52w high
−33.79%
SAM market-implied price distribution
SAM Price at Expiry
16 OTM quotes · ATM IV 47.8%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
43%
spot 175.09
Expected price
170.83
forward 171.61
68% range
143–198
−18.4% / +13.3%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 117.62 | −32.8% |
| 16% | 142.89 | −18.4% |
| 25% | 152.39 | −13.0% |
| 50% (median) | 170.62 | −2.6% |
| 75% | 188.89 | +7.9% |
| 84% | 198.30 | +13.3% |
| 95% | 222.30 | +27.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (183.84) | 31% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (192.60) | 21% |
| Down 5% or more (166.34) | 44% |
| Down 10% or more (157.58) | 31% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 31%, 1.0× the 32% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.