SAIL
SailPoint, Inc.Open19.75+0.18 +0.89%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 10:19 ET · 15m delay
Open
19.57
Prev close
19.57
Day range
19.5519.94
52-week range
10.3023.89
Volume
514.26K0.12×
Mkt cap
11.27B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
49.00
EPS ttm
-0.3400
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Sep 9, 2026
From 52w high
−17.35%
SAIL market-implied price distribution
SAIL Price at Expiry
6 OTM quotes · ATM IV 70.0%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
45%
spot 19.75
Expected price
19.71
forward 19.66
68% range
15–24
−23.1% / +20.3%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 12.67 | −35.8% |
| 16% | 15.18 | −23.1% |
| 25% | 16.56 | −16.1% |
| 50% (median) | 19.24 | −2.6% |
| 75% | 22.12 | +12.0% |
| 84% | 23.75 | +20.3% |
| 95% | 28.81 | +45.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (20.73) | 36% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (21.72) | 28% |
| Down 5% or more (18.76) | 45% |
| Down 10% or more (17.77) | 35% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 35%, 1.0× the 37% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.