SAIA
Saia, Inc.Pre-market337.52+0.77 +0.23%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 15m delay
Open
334.93
Prev close
336.75
Day range
333.05340.33
52-week range
249.32494.71
Volume
197.81K0.47×
Mkt cap
8.98B
P/E ttm
32.67
Fwd P/E
23.70
EPS ttm
10.33
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Oct 29, 2026
From 52w high
−31.77%
SAIA market-implied price distribution
SAIA Price at Expiry
10 OTM quotes · ATM IV 68.9%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
47%
spot 337.52
Expected price
339.27
forward 339.27
68% range
275–404
−18.5% / +19.7%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 245.94 | −27.1% |
| 16% | 275.02 | −18.5% |
| 25% | 291.71 | −13.6% |
| 50% (median) | 332.26 | −1.6% |
| 75% | 379.65 | +12.5% |
| 84% | 404.13 | +19.7% |
| 95% | 456.62 | +35.3% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (354.40) | 37% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (371.27) | 29% |
| Down 5% or more (320.64) | 43% |
| Down 10% or more (303.77) | 32% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 32%, 0.9× the 35% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.