SAH
Sonic Automotive, Inc.Open61.05+0.24 +0.39%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 15:50 ET · 20m delay
Open
61.35
Prev close
60.81
Day range
60.4961.79
52-week range
54.11113.67
Volume
167.85K0.55×
Mkt cap
1.93B
P/E ttm
9.74
Fwd P/E
8.35
EPS ttm
6.27
Div yield
2.70%
Earnings
Oct 29, 2026
From 52w high
−46.29%
SAH market-implied price distribution
SAH Price at Expiry
9 OTM quotes · ATM IV 54.3%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
58%
spot 61.05
Expected price
63.14
forward 61.38
68% range
51–67
−16.0% / +10.4%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 42.22 | −30.8% |
| 16% | 51.26 | −16.0% |
| 25% | 57.21 | −6.3% |
| 50% (median) | 62.10 | +1.7% |
| 75% | 65.36 | +7.1% |
| 84% | 67.38 | +10.4% |
| 95% | 105.95 | +73.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (64.10) | 34% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (67.16) | 17% |
| Down 5% or more (58.00) | 27% |
| Down 10% or more (54.95) | 21% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 21%, 0.7× the 29% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.