RPD
Rapid7, Inc.Open12.930.00 0.00%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 13, 15:47 ET · 15m delay
Open
12.76
Prev close
12.93
Day range
12.7013.60
52-week range
4.9719.84
Volume
669.17K0.32×
Mkt cap
871.49M
P/E ttm
41.71
Fwd P/E
6.37
EPS ttm
0.3100
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 10, 2026
From 52w high
−34.83%
RPD market-implied price distribution
RPD Price at Expiry
17 OTM quotes · ATM IV 88.0%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
47%
spot 12.94
Expected price
12.94
forward 13.08
68% range
9–16
−31.1% / +25.4%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 4.81 | −62.8% |
| 16% | 8.92 | −31.1% |
| 25% | 10.46 | −19.1% |
| 50% (median) | 12.71 | −1.8% |
| 75% | 14.90 | +15.2% |
| 84% | 16.22 | +25.4% |
| 95% | 22.45 | +73.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (13.59) | 39% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (14.23) | 31% |
| Down 5% or more (12.29) | 45% |
| Down 10% or more (11.65) | 37% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 37%, 0.9× the 39% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.