ROP.SW
ROCHE PSOpenROP.SW discounted cash flow valuation
ROP.SW Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies 2.5% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 6.1% in this model.
Model: 6.1% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 7.38% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | CHF 119.74B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (65% of EV) | CHF 219.70B |
| Enterprise value | CHF 339.44B |
| + Cash & investments | CHF 9.73B |
| − Total debt | −CHF 33.31B |
| Equity value | CHF 315.87B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 690.07M |
| Value per share | CHF 457.73 |
| Market cap | CHF 290.10B |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.24% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 0.50 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 7.74% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.24% |
| Tax rate | 18.7% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 10.3% |
| WACC | 7.38% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.38% | 621.45 | 701.33 | 808.94 | 961.73 | 1,195.77 |
| 6.38% | 483.39 | 529.72 | 587.98 | 663.46 | 765.14 |
| 7.38% | 392.44 | 422.06 | 457.73 | 501.54 | 556.62 |
| 8.38% | 328.07 | 348.27 | 371.90 | 399.92 | 433.66 |
| 9.38% | 280.14 | 294.58 | 311.12 | 330.24 | 352.61 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (FY2025) | — | CHF 13.07B | — | — |
| Year 1 | 6.1% | CHF 13.87B | 0.931 | CHF 12.92B |
| Year 2 | 6.1% | CHF 14.72B | 0.867 | CHF 12.76B |
| Year 3 | 6.1% | CHF 15.61B | 0.808 | CHF 12.61B |
| Year 4 | 6.1% | CHF 16.57B | 0.752 | CHF 12.46B |
| Year 5 | 6.1% | CHF 17.58B | 0.700 | CHF 12.31B |
| Year 6 | 5.4% | CHF 18.52B | 0.652 | CHF 12.08B |
| Year 7 | 4.7% | CHF 19.39B | 0.607 | CHF 11.78B |
| Year 8 | 3.9% | CHF 20.15B | 0.566 | CHF 11.40B |
| Year 9 | 3.2% | CHF 20.80B | 0.527 | CHF 10.96B |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | CHF 21.32B | 0.491 | CHF 10.46B |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.