ROIV
Roivant Sciences Ltd.After hours33.35−1.24 −3.58%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 33.35 0.00%
Open
34.44
Prev close
34.59
Day range
33.3034.90
52-week range
16.0042.50
Volume
6.31M0.90×
Mkt cap
24.09B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-19.42
EPS ttm
-0.5300
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 6, 2026
From 52w high
−21.53%
ROIV market-implied price distribution
ROIV Price at Expiry
21 OTM quotes · ATM IV 64.2%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
63%
spot 33.35
Expected price
35.59
forward 34.05
68% range
30–40
−11.2% / +21.1%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 13.44 | −59.7% |
| 16% | 29.62 | −11.2% |
| 25% | 31.69 | −5.0% |
| 50% (median) | 34.71 | +4.1% |
| 75% | 37.86 | +13.5% |
| 84% | 40.39 | +21.1% |
| 95% | 58.16 | +74.4% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (35.02) | 47% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (36.69) | 32% |
| Down 5% or more (31.68) | 25% |
| Down 10% or more (30.02) | 17% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 17%, 0.6× the 31% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.