ROAD
Construction Partners, Inc.Open86.06−0.12 −0.14%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 13:41 ET · 15m delay
Open
86.22
Prev close
86.18
Day range
85.2287.00
52-week range
85.22151.00
Volume
188.50K0.22×
Mkt cap
4.88B
P/E ttm
33.75
Fwd P/E
22.59
EPS ttm
2.55
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 7, 2026
From 52w high
−43.01%
ROAD market-implied price distribution
ROAD Price at Expiry
17 OTM quotes · ATM IV 59.1%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
49%
spot 86.06
Expected price
86.06
forward 86.28
68% range
70–102
−18.7% / +18.5%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 58.49 | −32.0% |
| 16% | 69.92 | −18.7% |
| 25% | 75.00 | −12.8% |
| 50% (median) | 85.49 | −0.7% |
| 75% | 96.40 | +12.0% |
| 84% | 101.96 | +18.5% |
| 95% | 114.71 | +33.3% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (90.36) | 38% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (94.67) | 28% |
| Down 5% or more (81.76) | 41% |
| Down 10% or more (77.45) | 30% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 30%, 0.9× the 32% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.