RL
Ralph Lauren CorporationPre-market373.24+1.96 +0.53%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delay
Open
369.86
Prev close
371.28
Day range
368.95374.85
52-week range
306.55421.60
Volume
347.54K0.57×
Mkt cap
22.24B
P/E ttm
23.64
Fwd P/E
17.80
EPS ttm
15.79
Div yield
1.07%
Earnings
Nov 5, 2026
From 52w high
−11.47%
RL market-implied price distribution
RL Price at Expiry
42 OTM quotes · ATM IV 47.5%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
43%
spot 373.24
Expected price
371.07
forward 368.53
68% range
324–412
−13.2% / +10.5%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 284.58 | −23.8% |
| 16% | 323.92 | −13.2% |
| 25% | 338.14 | −9.4% |
| 50% (median) | 365.62 | −2.0% |
| 75% | 395.21 | +5.9% |
| 84% | 412.38 | +10.5% |
| 95% | 469.64 | +25.8% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (391.90) | 27% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (410.56) | 17% |
| Down 5% or more (354.58) | 39% |
| Down 10% or more (335.92) | 23% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 23%, 0.8× the 30% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.