RIGL
Rigel Pharmaceuticals, Inc.Closed47.14−1.67 −3.42%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 47.14 0.00%
Open
48.70
Prev close
48.81
Day range
47.0548.87
52-week range
24.9552.24
Volume
134.00K0.47×
Mkt cap
880.57M
P/E ttm
2.79
Fwd P/E
9.54
EPS ttm
16.88
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 4, 2026
From 52w high
−9.76%
RIGL market-implied price distribution
RIGL Price at Expiry
11 OTM quotes · ATM IV 78.6%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
45%
spot 47.14
Expected price
47.34
forward 47.34
68% range
37–59
−20.9% / +25.5%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 32.39 | −31.3% |
| 16% | 37.29 | −20.9% |
| 25% | 38.63 | −18.1% |
| 50% (median) | 45.43 | −3.6% |
| 75% | 54.51 | +15.6% |
| 84% | 59.15 | +25.5% |
| 95% | 68.00 | +44.3% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (49.50) | 38% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (51.85) | 31% |
| Down 5% or more (44.78) | 48% |
| Down 10% or more (42.43) | 39% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 39%, 1.0× the 38% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.