RGLD
Royal Gold, Inc.Open234.77−2.14 −0.90%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 15:50 ET · 15m delay
Open
238.55
Prev close
236.91
Day range
231.78238.57
52-week range
168.88306.25
Volume
193.07K0.28×
Mkt cap
19.89B
P/E ttm
26.00
Fwd P/E
18.27
EPS ttm
9.03
Div yield
0.80%
Earnings
Aug 5, 2026
From 52w high
−23.34%
RGLD market-implied price distribution
RGLD Price at Expiry
19 OTM quotes · ATM IV 37.5%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
49%
spot 234.77
Expected price
235.58
forward 235.68
68% range
208–262
−11.3% / +11.4%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 185.16 | −21.1% |
| 16% | 208.34 | −11.3% |
| 25% | 217.07 | −7.5% |
| 50% (median) | 234.08 | −0.3% |
| 75% | 251.88 | +7.3% |
| 84% | 261.55 | +11.4% |
| 95% | 287.69 | +22.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (246.51) | 32% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (258.25) | 19% |
| Down 5% or more (223.03) | 33% |
| Down 10% or more (211.29) | 19% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 19%, 0.9× the 20% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.