RACE
Ferrari N.V.Open389.30+0.06 +0.01%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 10:18 ET · 20m delay
Open
388.56
Prev close
389.24
Day range
387.28390.47
52-week range
312.51437.15
Volume
40.97K0.10×
Mkt cap
68.28B
P/E ttm
36.15
Fwd P/E
31.45
EPS ttm
10.77
Div yield
1.09%
Earnings
Nov 3, 2026
From 52w high
−10.95%
RACE market-implied price distribution
RACE Price at Expiry
6 OTM quotes · ATM IV 35.2%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
50%
spot 389.30
Expected price
389.65
forward 390.65
68% range
350–429
−10.1% / +10.2%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 323.09 | −17.0% |
| 16% | 349.84 | −10.1% |
| 25% | 363.44 | −6.6% |
| 50% (median) | 389.29 | −0.0% |
| 75% | 414.74 | +6.5% |
| 84% | 428.94 | +10.2% |
| 95% | 458.20 | +17.7% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (408.76) | 30% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (428.22) | 16% |
| Down 5% or more (369.83) | 30% |
| Down 10% or more (350.37) | 16% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 16%, 1.0× the 16% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.