QISI.QA
QATAR ISLAMIC INSURANCE GROUP QOpenQISI.QA discounted cash flow valuation
QATAR ISLAMIC INSURANCE GROUP Q is a insurance - diversified company. Its cash flows include lending and deposits, so free cash flow isn't owner earnings and this model can mislead. Compare it with peers on book value and earnings instead.
QISI.QA Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies -17.0% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 20.3% in this model.
Model: 20.3% from 3-yr revenue CAGR. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 7.71% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | QAR 2.55B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (69% of EV) | QAR 5.64B |
| Enterprise value | QAR 8.19B |
| + Cash & investments | QAR 115.70M |
| − Total debt | −QAR 1.76M |
| Equity value | QAR 8.30B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 150.00M |
| Value per share | QAR 55.35 |
| Market cap | QAR 1.04B |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 0.50 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 7.72% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.22% |
| Tax rate | 10.0% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 0.2% |
| WACC | 7.71% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.71% | 73.68 | 82.21 | 93.39 | 108.70 | 130.94 |
| 6.71% | 58.34 | 63.47 | 69.81 | 77.86 | 88.42 |
| 7.71% | 48.00 | 51.35 | 55.35 | 60.20 | 66.19 |
| 8.71% | 40.58 | 42.90 | 45.60 | 48.77 | 52.55 |
| 9.71% | 35.01 | 36.69 | 38.60 | 40.80 | 43.36 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (TTM) | — | QAR 151.82M | — | — |
| Year 1 | 20.3% | QAR 182.64M | 0.928 | QAR 169.56M |
| Year 2 | 20.3% | QAR 219.71M | 0.862 | QAR 189.38M |
| Year 3 | 20.3% | QAR 264.31M | 0.800 | QAR 211.52M |
| Year 4 | 20.3% | QAR 317.97M | 0.743 | QAR 236.24M |
| Year 5 | 20.3% | QAR 382.52M | 0.690 | QAR 263.86M |
| Year 6 | 16.7% | QAR 446.55M | 0.640 | QAR 285.98M |
| Year 7 | 13.2% | QAR 505.40M | 0.595 | QAR 300.50M |
| Year 8 | 9.6% | QAR 554.02M | 0.552 | QAR 305.83M |
| Year 9 | 6.1% | QAR 587.60M | 0.513 | QAR 301.15M |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | QAR 602.29M | 0.476 | QAR 286.58M |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.