PZZA
Papa John's International, Inc.Pre-market19.30−0.37 −1.88%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delay
Open
19.52
Prev close
19.67
Day range
19.2919.97
52-week range
18.9255.74
Volume
983.97K0.67×
Mkt cap
635.39M
P/E ttm
24.12
Fwd P/E
14.49
EPS ttm
0.8000
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Nov 5, 2026
From 52w high
−65.37%
PZZA market-implied price distribution
PZZA Price at Expiry
9 OTM quotes · ATM IV 72.6%
Days to expiry
37
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
49%
spot 19.30
Expected price
19.78
forward 19.73
68% range
15–24
−21.4% / +25.3%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 12.64 | −34.5% |
| 16% | 15.16 | −21.4% |
| 25% | 16.40 | −15.0% |
| 50% (median) | 19.15 | −0.8% |
| 75% | 22.37 | +15.9% |
| 84% | 24.18 | +25.3% |
| 95% | 29.01 | +50.3% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (20.27) | 40% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (21.23) | 33% |
| Down 5% or more (18.34) | 42% |
| Down 10% or more (17.37) | 33% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 33%, 1.0× the 33% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.