PSCE
Invesco S&P SmallCap Energy ETFOpen60.99+0.50 +0.83%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 13, 12:40 ET · 15m delay
Open
60.62
Prev close
60.49
Day range
60.6161.12
52-week range
40.6765.26
Volume
5.21K0.28×
P/E ttm
14.37
EPS ttm
4.24
Div yield
2.52%
From 52w high
−6.54%
PSCE market-implied price distribution
PSCE Price at Expiry
6 OTM quotes · ATM IV 32.6%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
60%
spot 60.99
Expected price
63.84
forward 61.25
68% range
56–70
−8.2% / +14.0%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 52.13 | −14.5% |
| 16% | 55.96 | −8.2% |
| 25% | 58.03 | −4.9% |
| 50% (median) | 62.06 | +1.8% |
| 75% | 65.29 | +7.1% |
| 84% | 69.50 | +14.0% |
| 95% | 86.18 | +41.3% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (64.04) | 32% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (67.09) | 20% |
| Down 5% or more (57.94) | 25% |
| Down 10% or more (54.89) | 12% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 12%, 0.7× the 16% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.