PRVA
Privia Health Group, Inc.After hours21.65+0.20 +0.93%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 21.65 0.00%
Open
21.57
Prev close
21.45
Day range
21.3722.05
52-week range
18.9228.82
Volume
1.95M1.56×
Mkt cap
2.77B
P/E ttm
108.25
Fwd P/E
20.37
EPS ttm
0.2000
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Nov 5, 2026
From 52w high
−24.88%
PRVA market-implied price distribution
PRVA Price at Expiry
8 OTM quotes · ATM IV 48.8%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
38%
spot 21.65
Expected price
20.75
forward 20.88
68% range
17–24
−19.9% / +9.7%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 11.01 | −49.2% |
| 16% | 17.34 | −19.9% |
| 25% | 18.90 | −12.7% |
| 50% (median) | 20.88 | −3.6% |
| 75% | 22.66 | +4.7% |
| 84% | 23.75 | +9.7% |
| 95% | 30.67 | +41.7% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (22.73) | 24% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (23.82) | 16% |
| Down 5% or more (20.57) | 45% |
| Down 10% or more (19.49) | 31% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 31%, 0.9× the 36% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.