PRGS
Progress Software CorporationPre-market38.99−0.34 −0.86%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 15m delayPre-market 38.94 −0.13%
Open
39.41
Prev close
39.33
Day range
38.5040.11
52-week range
23.8247.25
Volume
458.91K0.82×
Mkt cap
1.59B
P/E ttm
17.80
Fwd P/E
5.43
EPS ttm
2.19
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Sep 30, 2026
From 52w high
−17.48%
PRGS market-implied price distribution
PRGS Price at Expiry
9 OTM quotes · ATM IV 60.9%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
51%
spot 38.99
Expected price
38.86
forward 38.86
68% range
31–46
−19.2% / +18.2%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 27.84 | −28.6% |
| 16% | 31.50 | −19.2% |
| 25% | 33.76 | −13.4% |
| 50% (median) | 39.15 | +0.4% |
| 75% | 44.16 | +13.3% |
| 84% | 46.08 | +18.2% |
| 95% | 49.01 | +25.7% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (40.94) | 41% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (42.89) | 31% |
| Down 5% or more (37.04) | 40% |
| Down 10% or more (35.09) | 31% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 31%, 0.9× the 34% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.