PRG
PROG Holdings, Inc.Open30.43−0.10 −0.31%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 10:16 ET · 20m delay
Open
30.72
Prev close
30.52
Day range
30.3531.03
52-week range
25.8047.73
Volume
20.68K0.03×
Mkt cap
1.21B
P/E ttm
9.75
Fwd P/E
5.48
EPS ttm
3.12
Div yield
1.83%
Earnings
Oct 28, 2026
From 52w high
−36.26%
PRG market-implied price distribution
PRG Price at Expiry
6 OTM quotes · ATM IV 67.7%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
46%
spot 30.43
Expected price
30.48
forward 30.55
68% range
24–37
−22.7% / +22.3%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 18.66 | −38.7% |
| 16% | 23.52 | −22.7% |
| 25% | 25.62 | −15.8% |
| 50% (median) | 29.84 | −1.9% |
| 75% | 34.52 | +13.4% |
| 84% | 37.22 | +22.3% |
| 95% | 44.37 | +45.8% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (31.95) | 37% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (33.47) | 30% |
| Down 5% or more (28.90) | 44% |
| Down 10% or more (27.38) | 35% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 35%, 1.0× the 35% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.