POWL
Powell Industries, Inc.Open183.69−1.69 −0.91%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 13:43 ET · 15m delay
Open
180.40
Prev close
185.38
Day range
178.28184.64
52-week range
92.59328.00
Volume
222.64K0.36×
Mkt cap
6.69B
P/E ttm
35.19
Fwd P/E
26.28
EPS ttm
5.22
Div yield
0.19%
Earnings
Aug 3, 2026
From 52w high
−44.00%
POWL market-implied price distribution
POWL Price at Expiry
64 OTM quotes · ATM IV 204.1%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
47%
spot 183.69
Expected price
182.64
forward 182.76
68% range
137–227
−25.2% / +23.3%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 102.98 | −43.9% |
| 16% | 137.48 | −25.2% |
| 25% | 151.93 | −17.3% |
| 50% (median) | 180.85 | −1.5% |
| 75% | 210.73 | +14.7% |
| 84% | 226.55 | +23.3% |
| 95% | 265.74 | +44.7% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (192.87) | 39% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (202.06) | 31% |
| Down 5% or more (174.51) | 44% |
| Down 10% or more (165.32) | 36% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 36%, 0.6× the 57% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.