POST
Post Holdings, Inc.Open76.67−0.17 −0.21%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 14:50 ET · 20m delay
Open
77.50
Prev close
76.83
Day range
76.2977.91
52-week range
71.45117.28
Volume
248.71K0.27×
Mkt cap
3.37B
P/E ttm
13.94
Fwd P/E
10.66
EPS ttm
5.50
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 6, 2026
From 52w high
−34.63%
POST market-implied price distribution
POST Price at Expiry
6 OTM quotes · ATM IV 35.6%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
56%
spot 76.67
Expected price
77.16
forward 76.99
68% range
69–86
−9.7% / +11.6%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 60.69 | −20.8% |
| 16% | 69.26 | −9.7% |
| 25% | 72.34 | −5.6% |
| 50% (median) | 77.79 | +1.5% |
| 75% | 82.76 | +8.0% |
| 84% | 85.53 | +11.6% |
| 95% | 92.04 | +20.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (80.50) | 36% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (84.33) | 19% |
| Down 5% or more (72.83) | 27% |
| Down 10% or more (69.00) | 15% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 15%, 0.8× the 18% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.