PONY
Pony AI Inc.Open5.60−0.14 −2.44%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 15:50 ET · 15m delay
Open
5.51
Prev close
5.74
Day range
5.505.67
52-week range
5.5022.46
Volume
2.72M0.70×
Mkt cap
2.44B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-8.35
EPS ttm
-0.3500
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 18, 2026
From 52w high
−75.07%
PONY market-implied price distribution
PONY Price at Expiry
10 OTM quotes · ATM IV 59.6%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
44%
spot 5.60
Expected price
5.57
forward 5.54
68% range
4–6
−21.9% / +14.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 3.76 | −32.9% |
| 16% | 4.38 | −21.9% |
| 25% | 4.81 | −14.0% |
| 50% (median) | 5.48 | −2.2% |
| 75% | 6.09 | +8.7% |
| 84% | 6.43 | +14.8% |
| 95% | 7.62 | +36.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (5.88) | 32% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (6.16) | 23% |
| Down 5% or more (5.32) | 43% |
| Down 10% or more (5.04) | 32% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 32%, 1.0× the 32% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.