PM
Philip Morris International IncPre-market202.00+0.81 +0.40%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delayPre-market 203.64 +0.82%
Open
201.52
Prev close
201.19
Day range
200.50202.77
52-week range
142.11207.76
Volume
3.34M0.72×
Mkt cap
314.84B
P/E ttm
29.02
Fwd P/E
21.98
EPS ttm
6.96
Div yield
3.17%
Earnings
Oct 21, 2026
From 52w high
−2.77%
PM market-implied price distribution
PM Price at Expiry
12 OTM quotes · ATM IV 31.0%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
55%
spot 202.00
Expected price
202.33
forward 202.70
68% range
185–220
−8.4% / +9.1%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 167.72 | −17.0% |
| 16% | 185.12 | −8.4% |
| 25% | 191.95 | −5.0% |
| 50% (median) | 204.39 | +1.2% |
| 75% | 215.40 | +6.6% |
| 84% | 220.43 | +9.1% |
| 95% | 230.33 | +14.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (212.10) | 32% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (222.20) | 13% |
| Down 5% or more (191.90) | 25% |
| Down 10% or more (181.80) | 13% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 13%, 1.0× the 12% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.