Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
194.77
−23.6%
16%
226.81
−11.0%
25%
240.28
−5.7%
50% (median)
265.72
+4.2%
75%
292.69
+14.8%
84%
309.83
+21.5%
95%
424.57
+66.6%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (267.67)
48%
Up 10% or more (280.41)
35%
Down 5% or more (242.17)
27%
Down 10% or more (229.43)
17%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 17%, 0.7× the 23% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.