PLMR
Palomar Holdings, Inc.Open133.98−0.25 −0.19%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 14:45 ET · 15m delay
Open
135.68
Prev close
134.23
Day range
133.39135.80
52-week range
100.81147.62
Volume
77.22K0.33×
Mkt cap
3.55B
P/E ttm
18.03
Fwd P/E
11.86
EPS ttm
7.43
Div yield
1.34%
Earnings
Aug 4, 2026
From 52w high
−9.24%
PLMR market-implied price distribution
PLMR Price at Expiry
8 OTM quotes · ATM IV 40.0%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
51%
spot 133.98
Expected price
132.06
forward 134.55
68% range
115–150
−14.1% / +11.9%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 88.50 | −33.9% |
| 16% | 115.14 | −14.1% |
| 25% | 123.02 | −8.2% |
| 50% (median) | 134.44 | +0.3% |
| 75% | 144.10 | +7.6% |
| 84% | 149.93 | +11.9% |
| 95% | 162.53 | +21.3% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (140.68) | 33% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (147.38) | 20% |
| Down 5% or more (127.28) | 33% |
| Down 10% or more (120.58) | 22% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 22%, 1.0× the 22% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.