PII
Polaris Inc.Open51.31+0.09 +0.18%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 10:17 ET · 20m delay
Open
51.49
Prev close
51.22
Day range
51.0552.56
52-week range
47.1477.98
Volume
25.27K0.03×
Mkt cap
2.92B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
15.09
EPS ttm
-4.61
Div yield
5.31%
Earnings
Oct 26, 2026
From 52w high
−34.20%
PII market-implied price distribution
PII Price at Expiry
10 OTM quotes · ATM IV 47.9%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
52%
spot 51.31
Expected price
52.06
forward 52.12
68% range
43–59
−16.1% / +15.2%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 35.76 | −30.3% |
| 16% | 43.03 | −16.1% |
| 25% | 46.53 | −9.3% |
| 50% (median) | 51.73 | +0.8% |
| 75% | 56.50 | +10.1% |
| 84% | 59.13 | +15.2% |
| 95% | 67.74 | +32.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (53.88) | 38% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (56.44) | 25% |
| Down 5% or more (48.74) | 34% |
| Down 10% or more (46.18) | 24% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 24%, 1.0× the 24% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.