PENG
Penguin Solutions, Inc.Open77.18−1.98 −2.50%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 11:50 ET · 15m delay
Open
76.33
Prev close
79.16
Day range
75.4780.47
52-week range
16.0489.86
Volume
1.45M0.52×
Mkt cap
3.95B
P/E ttm
29.68
Fwd P/E
14.68
EPS ttm
2.60
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Oct 6, 2026
From 52w high
−14.12%
PENG market-implied price distribution
PENG Price at Expiry
16 OTM quotes · ATM IV 81.9%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
45%
spot 77.18
Expected price
77.82
forward 77.56
68% range
58–97
−24.8% / +25.9%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 46.36 | −39.9% |
| 16% | 58.02 | −24.8% |
| 25% | 63.35 | −17.9% |
| 50% (median) | 75.05 | −2.8% |
| 75% | 88.92 | +15.2% |
| 84% | 97.18 | +25.9% |
| 95% | 120.14 | +55.7% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (81.03) | 38% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (84.89) | 31% |
| Down 5% or more (73.32) | 46% |
| Down 10% or more (69.46) | 38% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 38%, 1.0× the 39% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.