PDD
PDD Holdings Inc.After hours81.96+1.04 +1.29%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 82.20 +0.29%
Open
80.97
Prev close
80.92
Day range
80.8883.88
52-week range
71.94139.41
Volume
9.10M1.44×
Mkt cap
116.66B
P/E ttm
9.22
Fwd P/E
6.64
EPS ttm
8.89
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 24, 2026
From 52w high
−41.21%
PDD market-implied price distribution
PDD Price at Expiry
23 OTM quotes · ATM IV 33.2%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
47%
spot 81.96
Expected price
82.07
forward 81.95
68% range
74–90
−9.2% / +9.4%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 68.67 | −16.2% |
| 16% | 74.41 | −9.2% |
| 25% | 76.74 | −6.4% |
| 50% (median) | 81.47 | −0.6% |
| 75% | 86.69 | +5.8% |
| 84% | 89.68 | +9.4% |
| 95% | 97.73 | +19.2% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (86.06) | 27% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (90.16) | 15% |
| Down 5% or more (77.86) | 30% |
| Down 10% or more (73.76) | 14% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 14%, 0.9× the 15% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.