PD
PagerDuty, Inc.Open16.79+0.55 +3.36%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 14:50 ET · 20m delay
Open
16.15
Prev close
16.24
Day range
16.1116.84
52-week range
5.7016.84
Volume
729.99K0.47×
Mkt cap
1.32B
P/E ttm
8.31
Fwd P/E
11.44
EPS ttm
2.02
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 27, 2026
From 52w high
−0.30%
PD market-implied price distribution
PD Price at Expiry
7 OTM quotes · ATM IV 56.5%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
40%
spot 16.79
Expected price
16.24
forward 16.22
68% range
13–19
−19.7% / +13.1%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 7.41 | −55.9% |
| 16% | 13.47 | −19.7% |
| 25% | 14.48 | −13.8% |
| 50% (median) | 16.16 | −3.7% |
| 75% | 17.90 | +6.6% |
| 84% | 18.98 | +13.1% |
| 95% | 23.51 | +40.1% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (17.62) | 28% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (18.46) | 20% |
| Down 5% or more (15.95) | 46% |
| Down 10% or more (15.11) | 33% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 33%, 0.9× the 38% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.