Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
36.72
−35.2%
16%
44.79
−21.0%
25%
48.71
−14.1%
50% (median)
56.87
+0.3%
75%
64.77
+14.3%
84%
68.38
+20.6%
95%
74.91
+32.2%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (59.52)
41%
Up 10% or more (62.35)
32%
Down 5% or more (53.85)
40%
Down 10% or more (51.02)
31%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 31%, 0.9× the 35% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.